GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD (GNK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 came in mixed: revenue beat while EPS missed Street. Voyage revenues were $79.9M vs S&P Global consensus $59.4M (beat), but Primary EPS was -$0.01 vs +$0.06 consensus (miss). GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02; adjusted EPS was -$0.01 (loss on debt extinguishment $0.7M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Sequential operating momentum improved: adjusted EBITDA rose to $21.7M (from $14.3M in Q2), and TCE improved to $15,959/day from $13,631/day, supported by stronger Capesize rates and completion of 90% of the drydock program by early Q4 .
• Q4 set-up is strong: TCE to date is $20,101/day for 72% of owned days with Capes fixed at >$27,000/day; Board targeted a $19.5M reserve for Q4 under the dividend formula, preserving flexibility to adjust to market conditions .
• Capital allocation: 25th consecutive quarterly dividend declared ($0.15/share); company closed a $600M revolver in July, lifting liquidity to ~$520M at 9/30 ($90M cash, $430M availability); net LTV ~12% pro forma post vessel delivery .
• Stock-relevant catalysts: accelerating TCE into Q4, Capesize-led operating leverage, and governance developments (limited-duration rights plan; threshold amended Nov 10) that could shape strategic optionality and investor sentiment near term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Strong sequential operating momentum: “Our TCE has increased each quarter this year… Q4 TCE to date is estimated to be over $20,000 per day,” with Capes at >$27,000/day .
  • Liquidity and balance sheet optionality: $600M revolver closed (improved pricing, extended maturity) and $430M undrawn at quarter-end; pro forma net LTV ~12% after the October Cape delivery .
  • Fleet positioning: took delivery of modern 2020-built scrubber-fitted Capesize; first post-delivery fixture at ~$29,000/day net for ~50 days, immediately de-risking the asset .

• What Went Wrong

  • Earnings under pressure YoY: revenue down vs Q3’24 ($79.9M vs $99.3M) on lower rates and more drydock days; GAAP EPS fell to -$0.02 vs $0.49 in Q3’24 .
  • Non-operating drag: $0.7M loss on debt extinguishment weighed on GAAP results; adjusted EPS still slightly negative (-$0.01) .
  • Higher D&A and G&A: D&A rose to $19.3M on drydock amortization and a newer vessel; G&A increased on stock comp and professional fees .

Financial Results

Quarterly trends and YoY context

Margins (S&P Global)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: S&P “Primary EPS” actual reflects Street basis and may align to company’s adjusted EPS (-$0.01) . GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02 .

KPIs and Operating Detail

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Our Q4 TCE to date is estimated to be over $20,000 per day or more than 25% higher than Q3… with significant operating leverage to capitalize on improving drybulk fundamentals.” — John C. Wobensmith, CEO .
• “Our $600 million credit facility… further strengthening our ability to pursue accretive growth opportunities… and lower our cash flow breakeven levels.” — Peter Allen, CFO .
• “We took delivery of a 2020-built Capesize… first fixture… ~$29,000 per day net over 50 days, immediately generating earnings while also de-risking the investment.” — CEO .
• “Capes are fixed at over $27,000 per day currently.” — CFO (Q4 to date) .
• On the rights plan: “We can slow things down… to maximize value for all shareholders… structured to be as shareholder-friendly as we could.” — CEO (Q&A) .

Q&A Highlights

• Macro strength breadth: Seasonality plus record Brazil iron ore, China coal imports, and grains underpin second-half lift across Capes and smaller classes .
• USTR/port fees: Minimal financial impact; 80% of fleet Chinese-built and exemptions mitigate; contingency rerouting executed during brief uncertainty .
• Fleet renewal mix: Focused on Capes given superior supply/demand; potential divestiture of older Supras for renewal .
• Capital allocation cadence: Dividend remains primary; reserve flex used to sustain payouts; buyback program remains supplemental and opportunistic .
• Governance context: Rights plan adopted due to rapid stake accumulation; one-year duration, structured with shareholder-friendly features .

Estimates Context

Quarterly actuals vs S&P Global consensus

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: Company also reports GAAP diluted EPS (-$0.02 in Q3) and adjusted EPS (-$0.01 in Q3) . Q4 2025 Street framing: Revenue $80.09M*, Primary EPS ~$0.495*; management’s Q4 TCE to date supports stronger run-rates vs Q3 (execution/spot exposure will determine final realization) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q3 headline: revenue beat but EPS miss; operational cadence is improving into Q4 with higher TCE and most drydocks behind, positioning GNK for stronger sequential earnings .
• Capesize operating leverage is the swing factor: Q4 to date Capes >$27k/day underscores earnings torque if rates hold; monitor Brazil iron ore and West Africa bauxite ramp (Simandou) .
• Balance sheet optionality is intact: $520M liquidity and ~12% net LTV pro forma enable continued renewal and opportunistic growth without compromising dividends .
• Dividend durability remains a focal point: Board used reserve flexibility to sustain $0.15 in Q3; Q4 reserve targeted at $19.5M but adjustable based on rates and liquidity .
• Near-term catalysts: Q4 print vs Street (consensus implies step-up), spot rate trajectory, additional asset sales/buys, and any developments tied to the rights plan .
• Watch costs and D&A: Higher drydock amortization and G&A were headwinds; DVOE budgeted ~$6,375/day in Q4 should stabilize opex per day .
• Risk checks: Freight rate volatility, trade policy noise, and execution on utilization/fixtures; governance actions indicate active stance amid shareholder and competitive dynamics .

All non-cited estimate and margin values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.